Livetime Low Countries?

The figure shows the estimated sea levels and temperatures for the warm periods of the "Eemian", the "Holsteinian" and the mid-Pliocene ("WPMP"). For the actual values taken see the references mentionned in [1]. The CO₂ concentrations in 'parts per million' and the point for "Today" are added and like the others clickable. The various predictions are as indicated and the light blue curved area is the reconstruction by Hansen et al. from 2013. The values reported in the Dutch Delta Committee report of the possible sea level rise in 2200 connect very well with those mentionned in the WBGU report of 2006 - click here for the relevant graph. In the table below - taken from the WBGU report - the various expected contributions to the sea level rise in 2300 are shown:

PawPlot - P.Duinker

Source: "Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide, Hansen et al., 2013 . The text inside the graph and the title itself is clickable and leads to additional information. For sea level measurements since 1880 click here and for the video presentation by J. Mitrovica "The Fingerprints of Sea Level Change" click here.

Mechanism	Rise in m
Thermal expansion	0.4–0.9
Mountain glaciers	0.2–0.4
Greenland	0.9–1.8
West-Antarctica	1–2
Total	2.5–5.1

The table clearly shows that future sea level rise will be dominated by the melting of the large iceplates. In 2011 the onset of that phenomenon has been experimentally verified; see the publication: " Melting Ice Sheets Now Largest Contributor to Sea Level Rise", Rignot et al., ScienceDaily (Mar. 8, 2011). The same author presented in the spring of 2014 at a NASA organised broadcast clear evidence of the beginning of the irreversible collapse of "the weak underbelly of the West Antarctic ice sheet" [2].
Present CO₂ concentrations and its further increase in this century makes it unavoidable that the higher temperature predictions will be reached (see figure). Effective worldwide measures to stop the increase — a fast rising tax on the burning of all fossil fuels for example — are in the Western world still impossible due to a lack of will of governments and the organised obstruction by the fossil fuel industry and others. The following conclusion is therefore inescapable.
Conclusion: Eemian temperatures will be reached by 2050 [3] and a sea level rise of 1 to 1.5 meter in this century is possible. A maximum increase — an upper limit — of sea levels along the Dutch coast of 2.5 to 3 meter in the 21e century can no longer be excluded (see KNMI [4,5]). Over a longer time scale a rise of at least ten meters can be expected if the average global temperature reaches mid-Pliocene values. The lifetime of the Low Countries is determined by the rate of change of the Greenland and West Antarctic iceplates, each causing if melted an eustatic sea level rise of 7 m and 5 m respectively.

References and Remarks:
1. Eemien: a) "Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage", R.E.Kopp et al., Nature, 402, 863 (2009).
b) "Coupled regional climate-ice-sheet simulation shows limited Greenland ice loss during the Eemian", M.M.Helsen et al., Clim. Past, 9, 1773, 2013.
c) "IPCC report 2014 Chapter 5 - Information from Paleoclimate Archives". For temperatuur see page 408 and for sea level pages 425 and 426.
Holsteinien: a)"Collapse of polar ice sheets during the stage 11 interglacial", M.E. Raymo and J.X. Mitrovica, Nature 483, 453-456 (22 March 2012).
b)"South Greenland ice-sheet collapse during Marine Isotope Stage 11",A.V. Reyes et al., Nature 510, 525-528 (26 June 2014).
Pliocene a) "Departures from eustacy in Pliocene sea-level records", M.E. Raymo et al.,Nature Geoscience 4, 328 2011.
b) "IPCC report 2014 Chapter 5 - Information from Paleoclimate Archives". For temperature see page 385 and for sea level page 425.
2. For more on the accelerated flow of some unstable glaciers into de Admundsen Sea and the consequences for future sea level rise click here.
3. The Poorly Ribbed Cocle only known up to recent in the Dutch coastal waters as a fossil from the Eemian is back since the beginning of this century in the Grevelingen and the Ooster-Schelde. For more information see the publication by the cocle manager of Naturalis: Goud, J., 2004. The recent introduction of the poorly ribbed cocle, Acanthocardia paucicostata (Bivalva, Cardiidae), in the Grevelingen. Vita Malacologica 2: 39-44.
For some more recent sightings see the diverwebsite "Onderwaterwereld": http://www.onderwaterwereld.org/library/nl-zout/bivalva/acanthocardia%20paucicostata.
4. D. Le Bars, S. Drijfhout and H. de Vries, A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Environmental Research Letters , Volume 12, Number 4, April 2017. For a press release of the KNMI click here.
5. Howlong can Holland holdout? Presentation S. Drijfhout, KNMI Workshop " Op weg naar KNMI '21-klimaatscenario's ", 28 september 2017 , de Bilt