65 Million years of Temperature Change Temperature data NASA/GISS Temperature data MET Office Temperature data Met Agency Japan A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 Climate Indicators NOAA TROPOSPHERE Determination Decadal Averages Hansen et al. 1981, Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Hansen et al. 1988, Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. Hansen et al. 2007_1, Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study P.Duinker Home Histogram Data 1940 - 1949 Histogram Data 1950 - 1959 Histogram Data 1960 - 1969 Histogram Data 1970 - 1979 Histogram Data 1980 - 1989 Histogram Data 1990 - 1999 Histogram Data 2000 - 2009 Histogram Data 2010 - 2019 LOTI Data 2010 - 2019 TROP Data 2010 - 2019 Histogram Tropospheric Data 1958 - 1969 Histogram Tropospheric Data 1970 - 1979 Histogram Tropospheric Data 1980 - 1989 Histogram Tropospheric Data 1990 - 1999 Histogram Tropospheric Data 2000 - 2010 Histogram Tropospheric Data 2010 - 2017 Global Temperature 1880 - 2200 Natural Variability
 

1980 - Measurements versus Natural Noise - 2019

"The predicted CO2 warming rises out of the 1σ noise level in the 1980's and the 2σ level in the 1990's" according to Hansen et al. in 1981. As the figure clearly shows the data confirms that statement of almost 40 years ago splendidly and the rise since 1980 is already 5σ above the natural noise level. The independant balloon and satellite
PawPlot - P.Duinker

Source: Climate Indicators NOAA/NCDR. The title, the sources, the text "Combined Decadal Averages", the associated data points and the gray hatched areas are clickable and lead to the underlying data and additional information. Clicking on the Hansen et al. references brings the original publications in view. For a pdf-file of the figure click here.
measurements (blue triangles in the figure) are in good agreement with the direct measurements and they enhance the significance of the observation. That the effect can be attributed to a natural fluctuation - dark and light grey hatched areas - has become extremely unlikely by almost 6σ, see [1].
   The expected value for the present decade 2010 - 2019 is shown with the red rectangle. The value has been estimated from a figure from the 2007 publication "Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study". The conclusion of that paper reads:

The principal implication is that avoidance of dangerous climate change requires the bulk of coal and unconventional fossil fuel resources to be exploited only under condition that CO2 emissions are captured and sequestered.

The possible consequences of the warming for sea level rise and the lifetime of the Low Countries click here for an overview.

Remarks
1. The calculated deviation of the averaged land-ocean and troposheric measurements with respect to the natural variability hypothesis results in a chi-square value for the last 38 yeats of 42.7 for 4 degrees of freedom corresponding to a probability of 1.5·10-8, almost a 6σ effect. I thank Dr. W. Metzger – former colleague from the Radboud University in Nijmegen, the Netherlands – for providing me with these numbers.

 
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